larawatson: Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears Week 1 NFL Pick

Friday, September 7, 2012

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears Week 1 NFL Pick

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

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For those of you who followed me in the offseason, you?ll know that I did a lot of work to identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams to get ahead of the odds makers, bet them until they caught up or the teams proved him wrong, and make some money. Unfortunately, I got kind of screwed over week 1 or two of my overrated teams and two of my underrated teams are playing each other.

This game features the former. The Bears were 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game in 2010 and last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down. Brandon Marshall comes in to bolster their receiving corps and Mike Martz leaves as offensive coordinator, which is addition by subtraction because they never fit his scheme. Their offensive line is still a mess, but the Giants won the Super Bowl last year with the league?s worst offensive line in pass blocking efficiency. Jay Cutler has proven in the right scheme (not Martz? where he had to drop back 7 steps on every play), that he can be very tough to sack (in his final year in Denver, he was sacked on 6.0% of pressured snaps, the lowest percent for any quarterback in the last 4 years). The defense will be solid as always, even with their linebackers aging, with strong defensive line and secondary play.

Meanwhile, the Colts have an over/under of 5.5 coming into the season. When an over/under win total is 6 or lower, the over hits about 2 of 3 three times. I wish I liked more of the lower over/under totals this year for prop bets, but I do like the Colts. Andrew Luck doesn?t have much of a supporting cast, but he should prove to be a franchise quarterback from the word go and with an easy schedule, they should be able to at least match the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Besides, since the start of a 16 game season, teams that regress 8 wins win on average 5.0 more the following season. Obviously losing Peyton Manning hurts, but Andrew Luck and maybe a few breakout players will make them better than people think.

So who am I going with? Well, it?s not an easy decision, but I?m going with the Bears, simply because this is Andrew Luck?s 1^st NFL start and he gets an awfully tough test. I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams.

Luck is no ordinary rookie quarterback, but the Bears defense is no ordinary defense. The linebackers get all the hype, but their defensive line is very strong led by Julius Peppers and underrated defensive tackle Henry Melton and they have a very underrated secondary, led by cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Even if Urlacher isn?t his usual self, they should be able to hold Andrew Luck and the Colts? offense in check. Remember, Luck doesn?t have a lot of help. He should make the receiving corps and offensive line look better than they are, just like he did in college, but they don?t run the ball well. On the defensive side of the ball, there?s not much he can do and a suddenly explosive Bears offense should be able to move the ball well against it, even with guys like Vontae Davis, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis. I?m taking the home team for a small bet.

Chicago Bears 31 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -9.5 (-110) 1 unit